12 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Sterling bludgeoned by Brexit headwinds.
US dollar hovered below eight-weeks high against the Japanese yen on Friday while near-term sentiment relies on forthcoming US economic data which could provide further indication regarding next rate hike timing. The dollar index was held unchanged at 99.46 while pair of USD/JPY eased 0.03% to 113.84. Overnight, greenback fell 0.4% against the yen, recording its first daily decline in five days as investors continue to consolidate their gains. Likewise, ongoing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s abrupt dismissal of FBI Director James Comey places further pressure on the dollar. Nonetheless, the dollar managed to add 0.9% for the week, supported by higher prospect for an interest hike as soon as June. In the other region, Great British Pound stabilizes at around $1.2884 following overnight’s slump which touches one-week low of $1.2849. Broad selling was initiated after Bank of England’s inflation report shows that UK interest rate are unlikely to change within the next two years while subject to current market circumstances. The bank warned that living standards may fall this year, reducing the forecast for average earnings growth nationwide as uncertainty from Brexit arises. Likewise, they signaled that interest rates may need to be raised at a faster pace if inflation pressure surpasses targeted range.
Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price was up 0.13% to $47.89 while investors ponder upon US active rig count data bound to be released past midnight. Meanwhile, members and non-members of OPEC will be holding a meeting in Vienna on May 25th where they are widely expected to extend oil output cut deal in order to reduce global supply glut. Spot gold price inched up 0.18% to $1,224.85, buoyed by looming political risk in the United States.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.0% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.6% | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 703 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was thinly traded near the resistance level of 1.2900 following prior rebound from 1.2840. However, as both MA line continues to narrow downwards and may form an imminent death cross, GBPUSD is expected to move further down, towards the target of support level at 1.2840.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2985
Support level: 1.2840, 1.2750
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior inability to close below the strong support level of 1.0850. As the MACD indicator continues to hover outside of downward momentum, EURUSD is suggested to extend its retracement period and to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.0915, 1.1020
Support level: 1.0850, 1.0795
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term within the sideways channel.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35, 114.70
Support level: 113.60, 113.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 48.20. However, as both MA line continues to narrow upwards and may form a golden cross signal, a closure above the resistance level of 48.20 would suggest an extension of upward momentum.
Resistance level: 48.20, 49.30
Support level: 47.20, 46.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound while closing above the 20-moving average line (red). As MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal, it is expected to move further upwards, towards the target of resistance level of 1233.30.
Resistance level: 1233.30, 1245.15
Support level: 1214.15, 1202.00