12 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback flats, rate cut highly possible.
US dollar was traded flat against other major peers after US President Donald Trump criticize Federal Reserve while coupled with bleak outlook from recently released economic data. On yesterday, Trump commented in Twitter that the Federal Reserve has set the interest rate “way too high” and it has placed US at a disadvantage when compared to other currencies such as the euro. In addition, market participants are currently speculating for an imminent rate cut soon after US Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed down to 0.1% for the month of May, its slowest pace in nearly a year. Speculation erupted in the market after Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented last week that they will take “appropriate actions to sustain economic expansion”. Referring to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, traders are currently speculating a 76% chance for a rate cut during its July meeting. On the other hand, Australian dollar caught in a mixed sentiment while market participants anticipate the release of employment data which is scheduled for tomorrow morning. As of writing, dollar index was traded flat around 96.62 while pair of AUD/USD ticks up 0.02% to 0.6962.
As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.30% to $52.84 per barrel. Oil price received bearish pressure this morning after American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that last week’s crude inventories rose by 4.85 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,327.05 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:15 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 6.771M | -0.481M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 96.35.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.35, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle. However, due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the top of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.40, 107.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.6965. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6940.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.6990
Support level: 0.6940, 0.6900
NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 0.6590. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6555.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6555, 0.6490
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 1.3280. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3255
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance of 0.9915. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 54.45. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its price to extend further down, towards the direction of 51.60.
Resistance level: 54.45, 57.30
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1321.00. MACD which shows diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1355.00
Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00