12 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Wretched dollar as Washington mayhem brews.
US dollar held firm against other major currencies on early Wednesday trading following overnight’s sell-off after US President Donald Trump’s eldest son released a chain of email which cites Russian support for his father before last year’s election. The dollar index was held steady at around 95.35 as of writing. Donald Trump Jr. was told that a Russian prosecutor offered his father’s presidential campaign incrimination information regarding Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as part of Russian government support based on the email. Heightened political risk within Washington triggered investor’s risk aversion as it may further delay Trump’s fiscal agenda that were deemed to stoked US economy with large public spending and tax reforms. Likewise, investors will be placing their focus on US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony due later today for further signals regarding next rate hike and balance sheet reduction. Against other major currencies, euro was up 0.10% to $1.1477 against the greenback while pairing of GBP/USD tacked up 0.11% to $1.2861.
Otherwise, crude oil price rose 1.69% to $45.80 after American Petroleum Institute reported a larger than expected draw in crude oil stockpiles by 8.133 million barrels last week. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.53% to $1,220.01 due to a weaker dollar and risk aversion among investors.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
22:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) | 2.1% | 1.8% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) | 7.3K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.75% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -6.299M | -2.850M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the bottom level. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction for GBPUSD to extend its losses thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2925
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. A closure above the level of 1.1480 would suggest EURUSD to extend its upward momentum towards the next target at 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1530
Support level: 1.1440, 1.1385, 1.1330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retracement from previous high at 114.50. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggest further downside bias for USDJPY to extend its losses towards the support level of 113.15.
Resistance level: 113.80, 114.50
Support level: 113.15, 112.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price were traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level of 45.90. Such price movement suggest its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests crude oil price to extend its uptrend after closing above the level of 45.90.
Resistance level: 45.90, 46.30
Support level: 45.45, 45.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel after recent rebound from the support level of 1207.00. A closure above the resistance level of 1220.00 would suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1220.00, 1230.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00