12 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar shines as PPI solace.
US dollar rose sharply on yesterday as economic data shows rising wholesale prices which has further cemented investors expectation for a strong inflation and prospects for further interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The dollar index was quoted up 0.60% to 94.40 during early Asian trading session. According to Labour Department, US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month of June rose higher than expected with 0.3% versus forecast of 0.2%. Rising wholesale costs may be reflected into consumer prices, stoking higher expectations that the Fed could adopt more aggressive monetary policy tightening in order to control rising inflationary pressure. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to $1.1673 after news outlet reported that European Central Bank members remained split over when to raise their interest rates. According to Reuters, some policymakers suggests higher possibility to hike interest as early as July 2019 while others suggested the move to be unlikely until autumn next year.
As for commodities, crude oil price fell more than 3% to $70.55 per barrel after OPEC monthly report shows that Libya has resumed their export activities which could see an increase of 0.7 million barrels per day in oil supplies. Otherwise, gold price was down by 0.82% to $1,241.81 a troy ounce following higher prospect for more aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in the long-run.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
20:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 231K | 226K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance at 1.3280. Both MA line which continues to expand downwards suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3200.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3165
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.1760. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to experience technical correction before extending its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.1690, 1.1725
Support level: 1.1660, 1.1630
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the psychological level at 111.00. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its upside bias after closing above 112.10.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.60
Support level: 111.65, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price plunged sharply following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its bearish trending.
Resistance level: 70.70, 71.30
Support level: 69.30, 67.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing near 1242.20. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggest the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, major trend still skewed towards bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1242.20, 1248.20
Support level: 1238.40, 1233.70