12 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
ECB may cut interest rate further.
New Zealand dollar rebounds from its low level during Asian trading session despite bearish data from the region. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD rose 0.18% to 0.6671. For the month of June, Business NZ PMI came in at only 51.3, missing economists’ forecast for an increase to 53.1. A slump in Business PMI portrays increasing recession risk in New Zealand which is well in line with Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s prior dovish pledge. However, market participants remain fixated at other riskier assets as they held off from entering into US market due to higher chances for a 25-basis point rate cut at the end of the month. For the time being, investors’ will place their attention upon China’s trade balance data which will be released later in the evenings. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rebounds by 0.09% to 1.1263. Euro received some bearish pressure on yesterday after European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting minutes shows their readiness to ease their policy further in light of declining inflation expectation and economic slowdown in the EU zone. The minute suggests that ECB policymakers may cut their interest rates further or even restart its 2.6 trillion-euro bond-purchasing program. However, market reaction was rather short-lived as most of them has priced-in the fact for further easing from the ECB prior to the meeting minutes.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.27% to $60.48 per barrel. Oil futures received stable demand from the market after US oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico cut more than half of their output to face a tropical storm. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.39% to $1,408.88 a troy ounce due to higher chances for a 25-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 01.00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 788 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level 96.50.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.35
Support level: 96.50, 96.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2555.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average (Blue). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the 20 moving average lien (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6965. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 0.6665. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6705.
Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6740
Support level: 0.6665, 0.6635
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous channel bottom level at 1.3050. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2990.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2900
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 0.9925, 0.9965
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level near 60.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 60.35.
Resistance level: 61.30, 62.85
Support level: 60.35, 58.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1401.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1401.50.
Resistance level: 1420.55, 1436.35
Support level: 1401.50, 1383.60