13 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar-bulls tamed by timid inflation.
US dollar retreats further on Tuesday as recent inflationary data reaffirmed the course for Federal Reserve to hold off monetary policy tightening. Against six major peers, the dollar index slipped 0.23% to 96.90 as of writing. According to US Labor Department, its Core Consumer Price Index slowed down to 0.1% for the month of February, missing economist expectation for a rise up to 0.2%. With current core metrics lingers around the optimal rate of 2%, the data has done little to upon Federal Reserve to abandon its wait-and-see approach on interest rate hikes. Although recent labor costs seen some minor appreciation, its pass through towards consumer prices inflation is quite modest. Stronger productivity in growth over the years has kept labor costs in check while historically high profit margins encourage companies to absorb the costs themselves. As such, some investors suggest that inflationary pressure is less likely to get out of hand. In the UK front, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.02% to 1.3076 during Asian trading session. As expected by some, it was a second defeat for PM Theresa May after her Brexit deal was being voted down with 391 votes against 242. With her deal rejected, UK Parliament will now set to vote upon a No-Deal Brexit initiative. If that fails, they will set to vote on extending the Article 50 or Brexit deadline this coming Friday. In conjunction with the recent defeat, President of European Council Donald Tusk said that the EU will consider any request to delay Brexit if “considerable and credible justification” is being presented.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.18% to $57.15 per barrel. Oil futures remained supported after American Petroleum Institute reported a draw in last week’s oil inventories by 2.580 million barrels. As for gold, its prices tick up 0.01% to $1,301.13 a troy ounce following further setback on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative GBP Annual Budget Release
20:30 GBP Spring Forecast Statement
03:00 (14th) GBP UK Parliament vote on No-Deal Brexit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) | -0.9% | 1.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.069M | 2.655M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10
Support level: 95.95, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending wedge following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3170
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2880
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1300. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1260, 1.1220
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 111.45.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20
Support level: 111.00, 110.50
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the MA line.
Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7100
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower as technical correction for short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6820
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.3370. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3300.
Resistance level: 1.3370, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the bottom level of sideways channel. Although MACD illustrate persistent bearish signal, a close below this level is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0120
Support level: 1.0070, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to experience technical correction in short-term.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55
Support level: 56.45, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior rebound from the support of 1294.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1305.60.
Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45
Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20