13 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback soars despite tame CPI data.
US dollar managed to appreciate against its other major peers despite subdued inflation data from the region. According to US Bureau of Statistics, Core CPI for the month of May rose by 0.1%, missing economist forecast to remain stable at 0.2%. The lower than expected inflation reading has further cemented market expectation for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, traders poured into the greenback as a rate cut would highly benefit US firms that may promote expansion and growth. Likewise, US dollar received higher long orders after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism on reaching a successful trade deal with China. In a post released on his official Twitter, Trump said he had a “feeling” that a trade deal can be reached but threatened to increase tariffs if it falters. For the time being, Fed Rate Monitor Tools shows an 85% chance of a rate cut during Fed’s policy meeting by the end of July. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.29% to 96.90. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY rose 0.05% to 108.48 as of writing. Safe-haven Japanese yen was dumped on yesterday following Trump’s “optimism” in reaching consensus with China on trade deal.
As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.02% to $51.06 per barrel. Oil futures extended its losses after Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in last week’s oil inventories by 2.206 million barrels, missing economist forecast for a reduction of -0.481 million barrels. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.04% to $1,332.99 a troy ounce due to a rebound in greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
16:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 15:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) | -0.3% | -0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | -0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 218K | 215K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following a rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.35, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.2745. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.2630.
Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 108.70.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.40, 107.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower after breaking the support level near 0.6940. MACD which illustrate persistent downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6555, 0.6490
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.9945. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 50.55. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 51.40, 53.00
Support level: 50.55, 47.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1335.00
Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00