13 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Yellen quotes uncertainty, dollar hanging by a thread.
US dollar was capped against other major currencies on early Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen did not sound as hawkish as many had anticipated. The dollar index was eased 0.04% and last quoted around 95.44. Despite Yellen’s testimony which signal a “gradual” pace of tightening in interest rates, she also rebuffs the idea of adopting an aggressive rate hike path which the Fed believes it is not far from the neutral rate. Furthermore, she also emphasized that current inflation pressure is below their target and noted a particular uncertainty which could affect their monetary policy stance. On the other hand, Canadian dollar stood tall near 13-months high of $1.2748 following Bank of Canada’s decision to hike interest rate for the first time since 2010. In a statement, the bank explained that the growth is strengthening across the economy and has become more sustainable. However, the bank also acknowledges the recent softness in inflation while stated that the factors behind it are temporary and adjustment to lower oil price has largely complete.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.29% to $45.36 despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories. In a monthly report released by OPEC, it was indicated that the cartel’s output rose 1.4% to 32.61 million barrels a day in June despite production-cut plans which gives contradicting signals to investors. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.19% to $1,220.47 due to pessimism on the dollar following Yellen’s dovish stance.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
22:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:30 | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) | 40.81B | 42.44B | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 248K | 245K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | -0.1% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD re-entered into the downward channel following prior rebound from strong support level near 1.2800. Recent closure above the 20-MA line (red) suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term, towards the top level of the downward channel.
Resistance level: 1.2925, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.1440 would suggest further upward bias to extend its gains towards 1.1480 thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
USDCAD
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD plunged sharply following prior failure to extend its prices beyond the 60-MA line (green). Both MA lines which begins to expand further down suggests USDCAD to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 1.2735.
Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2850
Support level: 1.2735, 1.2680
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior retracement from the previous high of 114.50. A closure below the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 113.15 would suggest USDJPY to extend its losses towards the next target at 112.30.
Resistance level: 113.80, 114.50
Support level: 113.15, 112.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price were traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 43.70. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal from oversold region suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term after a successful rebound from the support level of 45.25.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.25, 43.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red) while currently testing at the resistance level of 1220.00. A successful closure above this level would suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum in short-term and head towards the top level of the downward channel.
Resistance level: 1220.00, 1230.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00