14 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback thrives as inflation firms.
US dollar rose sharply on Wednesday over the backdrop of optimistic inflation data from the region. The dollar index was quoted up 0.51%, last seen around 96.93 against a basket of six major peers. According to the US Labor Department, its Consumer Price Index came in flat for the month of January with only 0.2%. However, Core CPI rose 2.2% for year-over-year comparison, beating economists’ forecast for a reading of only 2.1%. Although the report portrays mixed signals, its underlying inflationary pressure is well supported by the acceleration of prices in medical care services and shelter categories. As such, continuous appreciation and pickup in inflation for the upcoming months may revive Federal Reserve’s initiation to raise interest rates sooner again. Otherwise, pair of EUR/USD tumbled 0.05% to 1.1258, its lowest level in three months. The single common currency received large selloff after EU zone Industrial Production data missed economists’ forecast, fueling more concern of an accelerated slowdown in the region.
As for commodities, crude oil price extended gains by 0.03% to $53.87 per barrel. Oil prices rose after US President Donald Trump commented that trade talks between Washington and Beijing is doing “very well”, dialing down market concerns over possible economic slowdown due to trade wars. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.09% to $1,307.40 a troy ounce due persistent risks in EU and UK.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Jan) | 57.06B | 33.90B | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index extended gains while currently testing near the resistance of 97.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up after a successful closure above 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.30
Support level: 96.65, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the bottom level.
Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2930
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2670
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior close below the support at 1.1300. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1220.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1375
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 111.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6830.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6855
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6770
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3220. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0130, 1.0170
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 54.40. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1309.00, 1315.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85