14 March 2018 Daily Analysis
U.S. political turmoil spooked the Greenback.
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.29% to 89.63 as of writing, spooked by inflation data and political turmoil in U.S. Overnight, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported an increase of 0.2% in the month of February while the year-on-year increase in the CPI remains unchanged at 1.8%. The lack of bullish momentum in the inflation data has eased investors’ expectation towards Fed to adopt a more aggressive rate hike. In addition, the Greenback was further pressured after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was dismissed by President Donald Trump following failure of both parties to reconcile their differing views on the Iran nuclear deal. On the contrary, GBP/USD rose 0.55% to $1.3981 following an upbeat spring budget statement given by UK Chancellor Philip Hammond, in which forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2018 has revised up to 1.5% versus the previous 1.4%.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was settled lower by 1.1% to $60.78 per barrel following market’s negative sentiment towards rising U.S. production that could offset OPEC and non-OPEC’s effort to cut global supplies. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.49% to $1326.11 a troy ounce as supported by a turmoil in the Trump administration.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
07:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | -2.3% | – | 0.2% |
| 10:00 | CNY – Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Feb) | 7.2% | 7.0% | – |
| 10:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) | 6.2% | 6.3% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | -0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.6% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 2.408M | 2.718M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -0.788M | -1.201M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance by 200-MA line and the pair is currently testing the resistance level at 1.3980. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.3980, 1.4050
Support level: 1.3890, 1.3800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.2380. However, MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2380, 1.2340
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior gaining its support at 106.40. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 106.90.
Resistance level: 106.90, 107.20
Support level: 106.40, 105.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher within descending triangle following rebound from support level at 60.50. A lack of obvious indication from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the commodity price.
Resistance level: 62.00, 63.60
Support level: 60.50, 58.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior its failure to break resistance level at 1326.80. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade lower towards the support by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1309.60