14 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Safe-haven rise in the latest round of trade war.
Safe-haven thrives following broad risk aversion across the market after China announce to retaliate against US tariff-hike. On yesterday, China announced to impose tariff ranging from 5% to 25% across 5,000 US products worth $60 billion by June 1st. China also warned that they may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy while reducing Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Market participants also speculate that China may dump US Treasuries which would lead to large depreciation in greenback. The recent announcement marks a new momentous in tit-for-tat exchange between two world’s largest economies after Washington escalated trade tension with a tariff hike upon $200 billion Chinese goods last Friday. Further escalation in trade war spooks off market participants towards safe-havens as it may jeopardize global economic growth. In a separate notion, US President Donald Trump commented that he has not decided whether to impose additional tariffs upon remaining $325 billion Chinese goods. He also confirmed that he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 summit in Japan during late June which may open further discussion with regards to ongoing trade dispute. As of writing, dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 97.11 while pair of USD/JPY slipped 0.09% to 109.22.
On the other hand, crude oil price recovered some losses by 0.26% to $60.98 per barrel. Oil futures slumped more than 1% overnight following heightened risk aversion in the market that sees trades dump risky assets for safe-havens such as Yen and gold. Likewise, gold price tacks up 0.05% to $1,300.56 a troy ounce due to rising risk in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) | 3.5% | 3.4% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Apr) | 28.3K | 24.2K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) | 3.1 | 5.1 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) | -0.2% | -0.3% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment | 4.5 | 5.0 | – |
| 04:30
(15th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.806M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from its prior high level. MACD signal line which begins to tilt downwards suggests the index to be traded lower, towards the direction of 96.85.
Resistance level: 97.30, 97.65
Support level: 96.85, 96.40
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2945. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3000
Support level: 1.2945, 1.2900
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY extended its losses following prior closure below 109.40. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 108.70 in mid-term.
Resistance level: 109.40, 110.10
Support level: 108.70, 107.75
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 0.6935. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6970, 0.6990
Support level: 0.6935, 0.6885
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.6570. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6630
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6540
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3490. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its prior low level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0070, 1.0110
Support level: 1.0040, 0.9975
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 61.80, 62.40
Support level: 60.85, 60.35
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended gains while currently testing near the resistance at 1302.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher after closing above the target of 1302.50.
Resistance level: 1302.50, 1311.40
Support level: 1295.65, 1285.80