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14 June 2017                       Daily Analysis


Greenback erodes prior to FOMC meeting.

US dollar extend its losses during early Wednesday trading ahead of US Federal Reserve latest policy review – a highly anticipated event for most investors. The dollar index was down 0.05% to 96.88 as of writing. Overnight, US dollar slumped to two-months low against the Canadian dollar following a surge in demand for Loonie after senior central bank official tips off hawkish signals. According to the Deputy Governor from Bank of Canada, Carolyn Wilkins postulate that policymakers would need to re-evaluate their interest rates as the country’s economy progresses after adjusting to the fallout of lower crude prices. Similar move was seen on the sterling which has regained some grounds following yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation data. According to the Office for National Statistics, annual rate of inflation accelerated to 2.9% in May, its highest level since June 2013 and well above Bank of England’s target of 2%. A surge in demand for sterling and Loonie has dented the dollar’s strength ahead of Federal Reserve’s policy meeting where majority of traders are expecting an interest rate hike. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen for further clues on future monetary policy stance.


As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 1.10% to $45.95 a barrel after industrial data showed a surprise build in US crude stocks by 2.8 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price was traded at break-even around $1,268.80 as the precious metal struggled to capitalize on a weaker dollar due to higher expectation for an interest rate hike.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event



Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

Tentative                 Crude Oil                               IEA Report

02:00                        USD                                     FOMC Economic Projections

02:00                        USD                                     FOMC Statement

02:30                        USD                                     FOMC Press Conference



Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
10:00 CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 6.5% 6.3% 6.5%
16:30 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) 2.4% 2.4%
16:30 GBP – Claimant Count Change (May) 19.4K 20.3K
20:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% 0.2%
20:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.3% 0.2%
20:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.4% 0.1%
22:30 Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories 3.295M -2.739M
02:00 USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.25%



GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level at 1.2635. MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of downward momentum suggests GBPUSD to extend its retracement period and move further up towards the target of resistance level at 1.2790.


Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2840

Support level: 1.2730, 1.2635




EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests EURUSD to advance further up, and retest near the strong resistance level of 1.1225.


Resistance level: 1.1225, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1160, 1.1100




USDCAD, H4: USDCAD has extended its losses following prior formation of death cross by both moving average line. However, as the MACD histogram illustrates a diminishing downward momentum, USDCAD may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests it to move further down after breaking the support level of 1.3190.


Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3330

Support level: 1.3190, 1.3120




USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrates significant downward signal suggests USDJPY to move further down towards the lower level after successfully breaking the support level of 109.95.


Resistance level: 110.15, 110.40

Support level: 109.95, 109.75




CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator begins to form a downward signal suggests crude oil price to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 45.30.


Resistance level: 46.70, 48.40

Support level: 45.30, 44.00




GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior closure above the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 1267.60. Referring to MACD histogram which illustrate persistent upward signal and momentum, gold price may extend its technical correction and move further up towards the resistance level of 1273.00.


Resistance level: 1273.00, 1277.40

Support level: 1267.60, 1263.00