15 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar inched lower, Brexit vote kept market pressured.
Dollar index continued to be pressured by cloudy sentiment after Fed’s dovish comment regarding being patient on future rate hikes provided the current inflation outlook. Besides that, global market participants are focusing all their attention towards the long-awaited Brexit vote on UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal whereby a major loss in vote might send the pound sterling falling while UK economy faces higher likelihood of recession. Recent reports stated that May will force a second vote if her deal is rejected, supported by German leader Angela Merkel with the quote that a no-deal Brexit will be a disaster for everyone. However, a second vote might be opposed by members of the Cabinet, increasing the likelihood of May being overthrow from her position as PM. Investors are being cautious while awaiting further sentiment in the current quiet market pressured by uncertainties and also lack of demand for safe-haven assets. As of writing, dollar index inched lower by 0.07% to 95.10 while pair of GBP/USD climbs by 0.27% to 1.2895.
For the commodities market, crude oil price edges higher by 0.63% to $51.10 per barrel while market sentiment continues to be boosted by OPEC’s production cut and Iran sanctions. Investors will focus on crude oil inventories report from EIA and API to gauge future price movements for oil. On the other hand, gold price falls by 0.08% to $1290.25 a troy ounce amid lower demand for safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
00:30 (16th) USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
02:00 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
02:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
03:00 USD UK Parliament Vote on Brexit Deal
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – Trade Balance (Nov) | 14.0B | 13.7B | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan) | 10.90 | 10.75 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | -0.1% | – |
| 05:30 (16th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -6.270M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from high levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to traded lower towards the support level of 94.85.
Resistance level: 95.60, 96.30
Support level: 94.85, 94.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2930. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2815, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.1470. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1555.
Resistance level: 1.1555, 1.1635
Support level: 1.1470, 1.1400
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level 108.55. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.25, 109.90
Support level: 108.55, 107.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.7220. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7100
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6850. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6850, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6715
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower near the support level 1.3255. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.9805. MACD which display starting bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 50.50. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level of 51.60.
Resistance level: 51.60, 52.70
Support level: 50.50, 49.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the lower bottom level of the triangle. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the bottom level of the triangle is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1295.00, 1305.00
Support level: 1285.00, 1275.00