15 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback fumbled, sterling tumbled.
Greenback was traded within a tight range on Thursday as bearish economic data downplayed bullish take on the currency. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.02% to 96.80 during Asian trading session. According to US Commerce Department, retail sales for the month of December fell by -1.2%, its largest shrinkage since 2009. However, most economist postulate that the bearish performance may be temporary as resilient labor market will lend support to consumer spending in the coming months. Likewise, the data has further cemented Federal Reserve’s cautious stance while they monitor future economic releases from the United States. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.10% to 1.2799, its lowest level in a month. On yesterday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another defeat in the parliament after British lawmakers rejected her request to reaffirm support on changing Brexit deal. Her latest rout has increased the chances for a no-deal Brexit option while Theresa May is expected to face another vote at the end of the month if she is able to score changes to Irish backstop deals.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.09% to $54.47 per barrel. Bull traders continue to steer the commodity’s price following higher optimism upon Saudi’s production cuts and US-China trade talks. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.04% to $1,311.75 a troy ounce while risk-off sentiment in the market subsides.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.9% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | -1.0% | -0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 3.90 | 7.10 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 91.2 | 93.3 | – |
| 02:00 (16th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 854 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.30
Support level: 96.65, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2800. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.2700.
Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2855
Support level: 1.2700, 1.2610
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1300. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, in tandem with the current bearish trend.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1330
Support level: 1.1250, 1.1220
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level of 110.50. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target at 110.50.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful close below 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 0.6855. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6800.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6855
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1.0080. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0000
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior close above the resistance at 54.40. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains after breaking the strong resistance at 55.20.
Resistance level: 55.20, 56.30
Support level: 54.40, 53.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price continues to trade within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1329.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85