15 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar fall amid poor consumer sentiment, pound gains from Brexit extension.
Dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currency pairs was falling by 0.07% to 96.47 during early Asian trading session while being pressured by poor consumer sentiment. According to the University of Michigan, its consumer sentiment fell to 96.9, missing economists’ expectation of 98.1 while indicating a worsening consumer sentiment in US economic conditions. Besides that, recent Brexit developments had since increase investors’ risk appetite as they shift their portfolio from the dollar market to the pound last week, right after greenback extended its gains for three-weeks in a row. Investors will now focus on future economic data such as its March Retail Sales to further gauge the momentum of dollar. In other news, pair of GBP/USD edged higher by 0.07% to 1.3088 as of writing following EU’s approval for a longer Brexit extension to 31st October while the UK are struggling to approve a deal right before the next European’s general election. Although the chance of no-deal Brexit had been lowered, the threat of longer-term economic damage as well as higher domestic political risks from Brexit limited the gains from the pound. Despite the holiday seasons, UK Parliament is expected discuss a new compromised plan this week to overcome the Brexit deadlock and hopefully to reach a deal where Prime Minister May will then seek approval from the EU.
As for commodities, crude oil price was furthering its depreciation by 0.49% to $63.43 per barrel on Monday following prior to the release of Saturday’s oil rig count data. According to Baker Hughes, the number of oil rig had increased by 2 while indicating a possible increase in crude inventories. Recent reports also showed that Russia and OPEC may discuss for a boost production during the OPEC+ meeting in June. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.18% to $1287.95 per troy ounce amid investors’ heightened risk appetite in the FX market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:30 | CHF – PPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) | 3.70 | 8.10 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.45. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, a breakout below the support level or rebound from the support level is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.45, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the MA line 50 (red). Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the nearest resistance level or below the nearest support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1325. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1325, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1245
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 112.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 111.75.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70
Support level: 111.75, 111.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7195. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7155.
Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6770. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6725.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3365. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, a breakout above the nearest resistance level or support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3365, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 1.0025. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 63.15. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 63.15.
Resistance level: 64.55, 65.85
Support level: 63.15, 61.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1287.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1296.40.
Resistance level: 1296.40, 1310.70
Support level: 1287.00, 1280.85