15 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling collapse, Brexit pending.
Pound sterling extended its losses overnight following bearish economic data and Brexit uncertainty which looms the UK market. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD recouped some losses by 0.05% to 1.2910 while the dollar index rose 0.20% to 97.28. For the month of March, Average Earnings Index +Bonus came in at only 3.2%, missing economist forecast for a reading of 3.4%. Likewise, Claimant Count Change in April shows an increase in unemployment with 24.7K, missing forecast for a reading of 24.2K. All the data portrays to a slower consumer spending and inflation due to lower wage growth and an uptick in unemployment benefit registration. Additionally, market sentiment towards sterling turned sour as recent report shows that UK PM Theresa May will put forward her Brexit proposal for vote during the week beginning on June 3rd. As there are no changes being made upon the proposal for the time being, investors are currently pricing in for a similar rejection as opposition Labor Party will adhere to their own prior demands.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.05% to $61.30 per barrel. Oil prices received some bearish momentum after American Petroleum Institute reported a build up in crude inventories by 8.6 million barrels last week. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.02% to $1,296.81 a troy ounce due to a rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.0% | 0.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.2% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | – | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.0% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | 0.0% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.963M | -0.800M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 97.30, 97.65
Support level: 96.85, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.2900. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.2900.
Resistance level: 1.2945, 1.2980
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2865
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. Although MACD illustrate bearish signal, a break at the trendline is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded flat while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.10, 111.00
Support level: 109.40, 109.15
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6935. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6970, 0.6990
Support level: 0.6935, 0.6885
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower after closing below the support level at 0.6570. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance near 1.3490. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following a rebound from its prior low levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.0110, 1.0155
Support level: 1.0070, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 61.80. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of 60.85.
Resistance level: 61.80, 62.40
Support level: 60.85, 60.35
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to extend further up after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1302.50, 1311.40
Support level: 1295.65, 1285.80