15 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Recession coming soon?
Japanese yen held onto its gains during Asian trading session following fears of possible recession in the near future. Market sentiment remains fragile following disappointing economic data from China and Germany which reveals the extent of damage from US-China trade war. Although Washington has recently announced to delay the introduction of tariffs on certain category of items until mid-December, investors remains skeptical over US ability to reach a substantial trade agreement with the China in the future. Likewise, US 2-year treasury yields rose above 10-year US treasury yield for the first time since 2007, signaling a strong recession warning ahead. The inversion of yield curve shows that investors are expecting a diminishing economic growth ahead as long-term bond yields depreciates below short-term bond yields. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY ticks down 0.03% to 105.95. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.44% to 0.6776. Australian dollar received some bullish buyback after its Employment Change data for the month of July came in at 41.4K, exceeding economists’ forecast of only 14.0K. The data shows that hiring momentum in the Australia remains resilient although regional inflation remains tepid.
For the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.05% to $54.86 per barrel. Oil prices extended its losses over the backdrop of increasing recession fears as well as rising inventories in the United States. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.23% to $1,520.36 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 1.0% | -0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 209K | 214K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) | 21.8 | 10.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 97.90. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 97.10.
Resistance level: 97.90, 98.50
Support level: 97.10, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2100. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1955.
Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2245
Support level: 1.1955, 1.1775
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1170. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1015
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 106.25. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 105.45.
Resistance level: 106.25, 106.90
Support level: 105.45, 104.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6825.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6430. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6505.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585
Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3380
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9705.
Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 55.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 53.05.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45
Support level: 53.05, 50.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1515.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1535.00.
Resistance level: 1535.00, 1555.00
Support level: 1515.55, 1495.60