15 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling tumbles as Brexit agreement collapse.
US dollar was opened higher on Monday following large selloff on the pound sterling due to the fallout of UK from reaching a Brexit deal with the EU. Brexit negotiation may become the main theme for the week as Irish border issue continues to circumvent any apparent deal to be made between Britain and Brussels. According to sources, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was forced to make last-minute visit to Brussels in order to seek more time from EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier over political uncertainty back in the UK. The diplomat was cautioned that any deal could be blocked by ministers in London as Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit strategy is split between hard and soft Brexiteers. In addition, May’s proposal to enact a “temporary customs union” has garnered backslash within the Parliament as some ministers’ postulate that it may turned into a permanent solution which could restrict their freedom to negotiate trade deals with other countries. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.11% to 94.95 while pair of GBP/USD opened lower by 0.37% to 1.3106.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 1.12% to $72.25 per barrel. Oil prices continued its bullish momentum since last Friday after reports shows that China’s export remained resilient albeit escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.26% to $1,221.12 a troy ounce over the backdrop of escalating political and economic risk which arises from the UK over Brexit issues.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 19.00 | 20.40 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) | 0.6% | 0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 94.65. MACD which begins to form golden cross signals suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3090. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3050
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.1605. MACD which begins to form death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1460
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the threshold of 111.90.
Resistance level: 112.15, 112.70
Support level: 111.90, 111.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the support level of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 0.6540. MACD which begins to form death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the threshold of 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6450
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower levels. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is advisable to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in the event of a successful breakout from the bottom level.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9885
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 73.70, 75.00
Support level: 72.00, 70.65
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1218.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1228.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60