15 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar retraces ahead of Core Retail Sales data.
Dollar index fell by 0.03% to 96.65 before European trading session while investors await today’s Core Retail Sales data which measures the overall consumer spending in the country. Dollar continues its bearish momentum after US Core CPI month-over-month data missed its expectations and causes investors to worry about the impact brought onto Fed’s plan for gradual rate hikes in the future as economists feel that a poor CPI data indicates that the inflation rate is not growing as planned. In other news, pair of AUD/USD surged 0.61% to 0.7275 as of writing amid positive Employment Change data. The data came in at 32.8K, exceeding economists’ expectation of 19.9K and boosting investors confident towards the Aussie dollar. Being a major trading partner with China, resuming trade talks between China and US further improving the sentiment for Asian pair.
As for commodities, crude oil prices notched up by 0.12% to $56.05 after falling to its support level amid poor inventory data. Investors are currently digesting positive sentiment from OPEC revised plan on reducing supplies. OPEC decides to further reduce the supply from 0.5M bpd to 1.4M bpd which provided confidence on future price hike. Otherwise, gold price edged up 0.05% to $1,211.30 a troy ounce following further losses of dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
00:30 (16th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail sales (MoM) (Oct) | -0.8% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) | -0.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 216K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 21.10 | 19.30 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 22.2 | 20.7 | – |
| 00:00 (16th) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.783M | 3.182M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 96.60. MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggest dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3015. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2900
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1335. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1290, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 113.50. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 113.05.
Resistance level: 113.50, 113.85
Support level: 113.05, 112.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7265. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.7290.
Resistance level: 0.7290, 0.7315
Support level: 0.7265, 0.7240
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6790. MACD which display the formation of a negative divergence suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6790, 0.6750
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3260. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3210.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3210, 1.3165
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0065. MACD which display the formation of a negative divergence suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level at 1.0030.
Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0100
Support level: 1.0030, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher flat near the support level 55.90. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction and rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 57.45, 59.20
Support level: 55.90, 54.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1212.30. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1212.30, 1216.80
Support level: 1207.10, 1203.00