15 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Cabinet supports Brexit draft, sterling surges.
US dollar extended its losses on yesterday, weighed by large buyback on the pound sterling after UK Prime Minister Theresa May secured her support from the Cabinet with regards to Brexit deal. In a volatile American session, sterling waivers in greens and red while PM May delivers her statement following the Cabinet meeting. During her statement, she announced that they have received Cabinet’s backing for a Brexit deal and believe that they draft agreement is the best that could be negotiated. With just less than five months away before the Brexit deadline, the draft agreement marked a significant step forward towards a two-year transition period and trade talks while at the same time relieving some uncertainty on what lies ahead for financial companies that centralized in London’s historic financial center. However, gains on the sterling remains limited as PM May would require to receive a full passage from the parliament, in which she still faces opposition from both within her Conservative Party and opposition Labor Party. As for greenback, the currency received further bearish pressure following downbeat economic data released on yesterday. According to US Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October depreciates to 2.1%, missing economist forecast of 2.2%. While inflation sees some setbacks, analysts believes that it did little to Federal Reserve’s plan in hiking interest rates gradually. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.32% to 96.80 while pair of GBP/USD rose 0.40% to 1.2989.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down 0.04% to $55.99 per barrel after American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large increase in last week’s crude oil stocks by 8.790 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.57% to $1,209.92 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
00:30 (16th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail sales (MoM) (Oct) | -0.8% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) | -0.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 216K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 21.10 | 19.30 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) | 22.2 | 20.7 | – |
| 00:00 (16th) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.783M | 3.182M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains in short-term, towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.3015. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.2955.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the mid-level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1330, 1.1385
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1240
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 113.30. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 113.70, 113.85
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher and currently testing near the resistance level of 0.7275. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the threshold of 0.7275.
Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7315
Support level: 0.7220, 0.7205
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.6805. MACD which illustrate negative divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6735
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3210, 1.3155
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140
Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 57.00, 59.45
Support level: 55.35, 53.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1215.95. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1206.00.
Resistance level: 1215.95, 1228.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1198.00