16 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
May defeated, will Brexit get canceled?
Pound sterling was traded with higher volatility earlier today after UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was being rejected by the Parliament. Initially, pound sterling fell more than 1.82% to one-week low before consolidating around 1.2849 during Asian trading session. In a highly anticipated and expected parliamentary vote, the Brexit agreement proposed by May received 202 votes for and 432 against while 118 no votes from Conservative Party rebels. Following the vote, Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion for “No Confidence” against the government which may trigger yet another general election. As for now, the market is heavily speculating for two options, either to delay Britain’s March 29th cutoff date or to bring in a second referendum which may end up cancelling Brexit all together. May’s government has until January 21st to propose for a solution. At the same time, US dollar received similar market momentum due to large selloffs and buyback of pound sterling. The dollar index rose sharply to one-week high before retracing and currently traded around 95.50.
As for commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.40% to $51.77 per barrel. The commodity was traded with high volatility for the past few weeks following mixed signals in the market such as diminishing US drilling activity and possible economic slowdown in China. Otherwise, gold price consolidates around $1,290.06 a troy ounce as market participants gauge multiple risk factors in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German CPI (YoY) (Dec) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) | 2.3% | 2.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov) | 0.6% | 0.3% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -1.680M | -1.323M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.80, 96.15
Support level: 95.50, 95.25
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2910
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2755
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1420. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retracement signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1380.
Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1380, 1.1330
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 108.70. MACD which illustrate death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.00
Support level: 108.40, 108.05
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of descending triangle. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.7180.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7180, 0.7145
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal may suggest the pair to extend its gains in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3260. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3260, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9950
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9790
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 51.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses after successfully closing below 51.50.
Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10
Support level: 51.50, 50.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1287.20. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal suggests its prices to extend its gains, towards the higher level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00
Support level: 1287.20, 1284.35