16 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD collapse after RBA signals rate cut.
Aussie dollar slips further, reacting to dovish meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier today. According to the minutes, RBA stated that the likelihood for a near-term interest rate hike remains low due to subdued economic performance in the region. However, the board remains open for an interest rate cut if underlying inflation remains low while coupled with upward trend of unemployment rate. In addition, RBA projected that the inflationary pressure is likely to remain muted for the time being despite robust performance in the employment market. Following the release, market participants reacted negatively towards the dovish outlook from RBA and thus knee-jerking the pair of AUD/USD to slip 0.37% to 0.7147. On the other hand, other major currencies in the market remained confined in a tight range as they await the release of economic data from European and Chinese counterpart to gain more signals. Most investors remained fixated upon the global economy due to recent sluggish economic performance and lower forecasted growth rate. As of writing, the dollar index was flat at 96.51 while pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.04% to 1.1303.
In terms of commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.38% to $63.30 per barrel. Oil futures was dumped in the financial market after Russian minister said that the nation and OPEC may increase their crude output in order to fight for market share with the US. Otherwise, gold price slipped 0.18% to $1,285.55 a troy ounce after US Treasury Steven Mnuchin noted that Washington and Beijing are inching closer to “the final round” of their trade negotiation. Such hints have dialed down market’s risk aversion and thus reducing the appeal of safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) | 3.4% | 3.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Mar) | 27.0K | 20.0K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 3.9% | 3.9% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) | -3.6 | 0.8 | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30 (17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 4.091M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 96.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3105. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3140
Support level: 1.3065, 1.3020
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1320. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1255
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 112.00. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.40.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35
Support level: 111.40, 110.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7145. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7175, 0.7195
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7125
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6740. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6740, 0.6715
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3390. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3390, 1.3440
Support level: 1.3345, 1.3290
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which display bearish bias momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0030.
Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0090
Support level: 1.0030, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 64.50. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 62.85.
Resistance level: 64.50, 65.95
Support level: 62.85, 61.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1284.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest gold to extend losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1284.05.
Resistance level: 1293.20, 1300.25
Support level: 1284.05, 1277.05