16 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar pressured by Trump’s criticism, upbeat data limited losses.
Greenback measuring its value against a basket of six major currency pairs edged lower by 0.02% to 96.50 during early Asian trading session following President Donald Trump’s tweet regarding poor economic growth due to Fed’s decision to tighten monetary policy. In his tweet, Trump criticized that if the Fed did its job properly, both the stock market and GDP would be higher than it is now. Although in the last FOMC meeting where the Fed signaled that they will hold their ‘wait and see’ approach towards further rate hike, however if the 2nd quarter growth is doing well, Fed will most likely be open to raise hike sooner. Besides that, yesterday release of upbeat NY state manufacturing index which exceed its expectation with the reading of 10.10 vs 6.70 help limits dollar fall, keeping the greenback strong above 96.40 level. In other news, pair of USD/CAD was up by 0.12% to 1.3375 amid Bank of Canada (BoC) dovish business outlook survey. According to BoC’s quarterly report, the bank stated that business sentiment had softened in the first quarter of 2019, with their outlook indicator plunging from 2.2 to a low of -0.6. The bank also stated that although expectations for sales remained on the upside, however several business are now more pessimistic about the market’s demand. Furthermore, the commodity-backed currency was further pressured as crude oil pared its last week’s gains on Monday.
As for commodities, crude oil price was continuing its bearish momentum while falling by 0.28% to $63.36 per barrel amid growing concerns on Russia’s commitment to OPEC cuts. Last Saturday, Moscow showed its reluctance to further output cuts with OPEC+ beyond June as their worries of losing market share to US crude grew. According to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, both Russia and OPEC may decide to boost output to fight for market share with the US although it may risk in fall of oil prices to as low as $40 per barrel. Investors will now focus on key inventory data due later today by the American Petroleum Institute to further gauge the oil market. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.08% to $1286.55 per troy ounce following the large sales of $400M worth of gold by Venezuela amid its sanctions from the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) | 3.4% | 3.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Mar) | 27.0K | 20.0K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 3.9% | 3.9% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) | -3.6 | 0.8 | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30 (17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 4.091M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.45. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, a breakout below the support level or rebound from the support level is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.45, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the MA line 50 (red). Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the nearest resistance level or below the nearest support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1325. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1325, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1245
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following prior retracement from the resistance level 112.10. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 111.75.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70
Support level: 111.75, 111.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7155.
Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6770. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6725.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3380. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 1.0035. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0055.
Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0085
Support level: 1.0035, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 63.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 64.55.
Resistance level: 64.55, 65.85
Support level: 63.15, 61.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1287.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1296.40.
Resistance level: 1296.40, 1310.70
Support level: 1287.00, 1280.85