16 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Widened downside for greenback as Trump-Russia intensifies.
Greenback extended its back leg in Asia on Tuesday as the market churns the latest controversy that surrounds Trump administration after an explosive story in Washington Post suggested that Trump previously provided Russian diplomats wit top secret details regarding Middle Eastern intelligence sources. The dollar index which measured its strength against six major peers eased 0.05% to 98.67. Likewise, it has received further downward pressure following overnight’s release of weaker-than-expected manufacturing data for the region of New York. According to the Federal Reserve of New York, Empire State manufacturing index fell to contractionary region with -1 for May, down from 5.2 in April. The softer reading dented investor’s expectation for a rate hike with the Fed Rate Monitor Tool showing a 72.4% chance for the month of June, down from prior reading of nearly 80%. Against other major currencies, the dollar depreciates against its Japanese counterpart with USD/JPY down 0.10% to 113.67 while GBP/USD rose 0.17% to $1.2917.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price held gains after appreciating 0.53% to $49.11 following Saudi Arabia and Russia pledge to extend the production cut deal till March of next year if other key producers follow through. On the other hand, gold price extended its gains by 0.33% to $1,232.68 following dollar’s weakness due to weak US manufacturing data from yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Tentative Crude Oil IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 2.3% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) | 19.5 | 22.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Apr) | 1.260M | 1.270M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (Apr) | 1.215M | 1.260M | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.780M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while recently retraced from the 60-moving average line (green). A closure below the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target of support level at 1.2840. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2985, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2770
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its gains following prior closure above both moving average line after a rebound from 1.0860. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate upward signal suggests EURUSD to advance further up, towards the resistance level of 1.1020.
Resistance level: 1.1020, 1.1075
Support level: 1.0930, 1.0860
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY continues to trade within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. A closure below the support level of 113.35 would suggest USDJPY to advance further down, towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 113.60, 113.90
Support level: 113.35, 113.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 48.70. However, as the MACD indicator continues to drift outside of upward momentum, crude oil price may be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend its uptrend.
Resistance level: 49.20, 49.65
Support level: 48.70, 48.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound an closure above the 60-moving average line (green). A successful closure above the resistance level of 1233.30 would suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum thereafter.
Resistance level: 1233.30, 1245.15
Support level: 1215.15, 1202.00