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16 June 2017                       Daily Analysis


Greenback propelled by hawkish Fed and data.

Greenback stood tall during Friday’s Asian session while on track for weekly gains against a basket of other major currencies, buoyed by overnight’s upbeat US economic data which gave investors some hope that US central bank may follow its plan for one more rate hike in 2017. The dollar index added 0.1% to 97.47 and was up 0.6% for the week. On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve raised their benchmark rates as widely expected and released preliminary details regarding its plan to trim $4 trillion-plus of debt holdings. Analyst deemed the Fed to be relatively hawkish by releasing its plans earlier than expected while keeping the interest rate outlook unchanged despite some slowdown in economic performance. In the Asian region, the dollar rose 0.2% to 111.11 against the Japanese yen while investors await the outcome from Bank of Japan latest policy meeting, followed by news conference with BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The central bank is widely expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy and reassure markets that it has no plans to change its outlook to follow Fed’s tapering.


In the commodities market, crude oil price sits near six-months low and last quoted at $44.45 as ongoing supply overhang suppresses market optimism despite OPEC-led effort to cut production and boost its prices. Otherwise, gold price mend some losses by 0.16% to $1,254.19 after sinking overnight due to upbeat US economic data.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event



Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

11:00                     JPY                                         BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)

14:30                     JPY                                         BoJ Press Conference


Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
11:00 JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10%
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) 1.4% 1.4%
20:30 USD – Building Permits (May) 1.228M 1.250M
01:00 Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 741




GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level at 1.2730. MACD histogram continues to illustrate substantial upward signal suggests GBPUSD to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level of 1.2790.


Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2840

Support level: 1.2730, 1.2635




EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal and momentum, EURUSD is expected to advance further down towards the target of 1.1100.


Resistance level: 1.1160, 1.1225, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1100, 1.1040




USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA lines has recently formed a golden cross formation, it is expected to move further up towards the target of resistance level at 111.60.


Resistance level: 111.60, 112.25

Support level: 110.10, 108.80




CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its downward momentum following prior retracement from the top level of downward channel. As the MACD indicator continues to hover inside downward momentum, crude oil price is expected to advance further down towards the support level of 44.00.


Resistance level: 45.30, 46.70

Support level: 44.00, 43.00




GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded within an ascending triangle following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 1296.00. Recent closure below the 60-moving average line (green) suggests gold price to extend its downward momentum towards the support level at 1246.00.


Resistance level: 1271.00, 1296.00

Support level: 1246.00, 1217.00