16 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Sterling pressured by Brexit risks.
Pound sterling struggled near prior low level against the US dollar following persistent Brexit risks in the region. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.2513. Sterling remains under pressure as investors were nervous with the prospect of Brexit-hardliner Boris Johnson winning the Conservative party leadership contest and elected to become the next UK Prime Minister. Prior, Boris reiterated to call for a Brexit regardless of its outcome by 31st October deadline, fuming higher prospect for a possible hard Brexit in the region. Likewise, poor economic data and signals from Bank of England to cut its interest rates has dialed down market optimism towards the region. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.06% to 0.7035. Australian dollar continues to hover near one-week high after receiving some bullish support from yesterday’s release of China economic data. However, gains were limited as trade war risk in between US and China continues to persist due to the lack of developments between both countries.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.17% to $59.38 per barrel. However, overall sentiment towards the commodity remains bleak as US production facilities near the Gulf of Mexico resumes their production after Hurricane Barry swept through over the weekends. Likewise, investors began to cast doubt over the ability of OPEC to rebalance the global oil market as supply glut continues to persist. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.02% to $1,413.76 a troy ounce while market participants wait for further signals with regards to US economic performance in the near-term.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20.00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
01.00(17th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) | 3.1% | 3.1% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) | 23.2K | 18.9K | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (May) | 3.8% | 3.8% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | -21.1 | -22.1 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 04.30(17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -8.129M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing both 20 moving average line (Red) and 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the moving average lines.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.35
Support level: 96.50, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2500. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2500.
Resistance level: 1.2575, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the channel top level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the channel bottom level at 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 107.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.75, 107.40
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7055.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7030, 0.7000
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6725. MACD which display bullish bias momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6725.
Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6780
Support level: 0.6660, 0.6600
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3050. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2900
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9885.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 60.35.
Resistance level: 60.35, 61.30
Support level: 58.60, 57.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the 20 moving average line (Red). Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout below 20 moving average line (Red) is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1424.05, 1436.35
Support level: 1403.00, 1383.60