16 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar climbed despite downbeat data.
US Dollar strengthen against a basket of six major currencies despite announcement of poor Retail Sales Data on yesterday generated negative sentiment to the market. Retail sales rose by 0.1% last month while the economist forecasted up to 0.7% in total value of retail sales level. Nevertheless, US Dollar notched up 0.09% to 94.80 as of writing. US Dollar trade strongly more or less was due to weaker equities and broader risk-off mood in the global market as one would expect. Besides, economists commented that the strength and confidence of the consumer are still intact while consumer spending will be remained robust in the coming quarter and boost up the retails sales in the coming months. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD fell 0.05% to 1.3145 amid Brexit deal hit stumbling block as two parties are still disagreed with certain issue such as Irish border question. Moreover, market participants are still waiting for the announcement of Average Earnings Index and Bonus for further action as a lower than expected reading could exert bearish momentum upon pound sterling.
In the commodities market, crude oil price hiked 0.35% to $71.90 amid signs on Iranian oil exports this month have tighten from September ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran that planned to start on November. The oil export from Iran declined from 1.6 million to 1.33 million barrel per day in first two weeks of October. On the other hand, gold price down 0.10% to 1225.50 after hitting 11 weeks high as dollar rebound.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) | 2.6% | 2.6% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Sep) | 8.7K | 4.5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) | -10.6 | -12.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) | 6.939M | 6.945M | – |
| 04:30 (17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 9.750M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 94.60. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward its resistance level at 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.30
Support level: 94.60, 94.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3165. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward its resistance level at 1.3165.
Resistance level: 1.3165, 1.3250
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3035
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1605. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1545.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1665
Support level: 1.1545, 1.1525
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 112.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.25.
Resistance level: 112.25, 112.50
Support level: 112.05, 111.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7140. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 0.7105.
Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6590. MACD which illustrate starting of bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 0.6545.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6605
Support level: 0.6545, 0.6530
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2965. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 1.2965.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2940
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9860. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward its resistance level at 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 71.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 72.40.
Resistance level: 72.40, 73.30
Support level: 71.00, 69.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1228.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1217.05
Resistance level: 1228.75, 1233.10
Support level: 1217.05, 1208.95