16 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Soft data tranquilizes dollar-bulls.
Greenback backtracks its prior gains on Monday after US economic data came in softer-than-expected which has raised investor’s concern upon Federal Reserve to follow through their plans for further rate hike in the future. The US Commerce Department reported yesterday that US Core Retail Sales fell by 0.1%, missing economist forecast for an expansion of up to 0.4%. Softness in the data was largely due to a diminished spending at restaurants and bars which fell to its lowest level in nearly two years. However, the report noted that consumer spending is still upbeat and it may continue to boost regional economic growth despite some slack. Any data which is related to consumer spending are critical for the United States as it accounts for more than two third of its economic activity. On the other hand, pound sterling was thinly traded during Asian trading session after UK Prime Minister Theresa May told parliament on Monday that while talks with EU has progressed significantly, the status of Irish border remains as the main issue. Thus, investors will continue to observe further updates with regards to Brexit for further signals. As of writing, dollar index fell 0.01% to 94.70 while GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.3153.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.26% to $71.94 during Asian session. The commodity was traded in a volatile fashion as investors digests the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist that may spark geopolitical tension and crude supply disruption. On the other hand, gold price was up 0.03% to $1,227.49 a troy ounce following slight weakness on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) | 2.6% | 2.6% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Sep) | 8.7K | 4.5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) | -10.6 | -12.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) | 6.939M | 6.945M | – |
| 04:30 (17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 9.750M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the threshold of 95.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to extend its losses after breaking the support of 94.65.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.35
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3090
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the resistance of 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1550
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal and momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance at 111.90.
Resistance level: 111.90, 112.15
Support level: 111.60, 111.15
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing near the mid-level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7150, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7130, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout near 0.6540. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the strong resistance of 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction, towards the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2900
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Both lines which has formed a death cross signal and continues to expand downwards suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9850.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9850, 0.9810
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. Although MACD illustrate persistent upward signal, a close above 72.00 is required to further validate its bullish momentum.
Resistance level: 72.00, 73.70
Support level: 70.65, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing near the threshold of 1228.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 1228.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60