16 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar recovers as sterling dumped.
US dollar was traded higher on yesterday following upbeat economic data which has reaffirm market’s sentiment that US economy remain strong to warrant for further monetary policy tightening from Federal Reserve. According to US Commerce Department, Core Retail Sales rose 0.7% for the month of October, slightly higher than forecast of 0.5%. In addition, US Department of Labor reported that the initial jobless claims for last week rose only by 2,000 to 216,000 individuals, in line with economists’ forecast. However, gains on the dollar were limited after Philadelphia Fed reported that its manufacturing index fell sharply from 21.1 to 12.9 last month, missing forecasted reading of 20.7. On the other hand, pound sterling plunged sharply on yesterday after UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivered her speech in a press conference. According to May, she stood firm on her position to defend her Brexit plan, arguing that it delivers on what the people had voted for. Her reiteration came after a slew of ministers resigned from the Parliament, as a standoff against her credibility and leadership. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.31% to 96.87 while pair of GBP/USD nosedived 1.65% to 1.2768.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.20% to $56.47 per barrel after Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a large increase in last week’s crude oil stocks by 10.27 million barrels, missing forecasted reading of 3.182 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.07% to $1,214.15 a troy ounce following higher risk aversion against political issue in the United Kingdom.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 2.2% | 2.2% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Sep) | -0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 02:00 (17th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 886 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 97.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the support level near 96.60.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout from the resistance level at 1.2805.
Resistance level: 1.2805, 1.2895
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2570
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1330, 1.1280
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 113.70, 113.85
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the resistance level at 0.7300.
Resistance level: 0.7300, 0.7315
Support level: 0.7275, 0.7250
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level at 0.6805. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the target at 0.6850.
Resistance level: 0.6850, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6805, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 1.3210. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below 1.3155.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3155, 1.3115
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140
Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains in short-term after closing above 57.00.
Resistance level: 57.00, 59.45
Support level: 55.35, 53.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up after closing above the threshold at 1215.95.
Resistance level: 1215.95, 1228.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1198.00