17 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Market flattens as further signals is required.
Pound sterling struggled to determine its direction on yesterday after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survives a vote of no-confidence with a slim margin. May’s government garnered 325 votes of support against 306 votes of no-confidence. The motion was brought against May by Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn following a widely expected defeat of Brexit withdrawal deal last Tuesday. In a speech given subsequent to the vote of no confidence, May invites the leaders of all parties to have a private meeting with her as soon as yesterday tonight in order to seek a consensus with regards to Brexit conundrum. Her government is expected to deliver an alternative solution as soon as next Monday (21st January). On the other hand, US dollar failed to extends its gains on yesterday following dovish signal from Federal Reserve. Several senior Fed officials commented that they are in no hurry to raise interest rates further due to the possibility of a slowing global economic growth. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2882 while the dollar index oscillates at around 95.68.
In the commodities market, crude oil price settled down 0.29% to $52.17 per barrel. According to EIA, US daily oil production rose by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching a massive 11.9 million bpd last week. The continuing rise in supply has overshadowed bullish inventory data which recorded a larger than expected draw by -2.683 million versus forecast of only -1.323 million. Otherwise, gold price continues to be traded in a sideways fashion at around $1,293.72 a troy ounce due to the lack of market signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) | 1.6% | 1.6% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Dec) | 1.328M | 1.290M | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 216K | 219K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) | 9.4 | 9.7 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Jan) | 19.1 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 95.30.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.10
Support level: 95.30, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level of 1.2860. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2960
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1380. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1420.
Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1380, 1.1330
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 108.95, 109.35
Support level: 108.25, 107.50
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of descending channel. MACD which illustrates diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7110
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, both MACD and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards 1.3230.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3290
Support level: 1.230, 1.3180
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following a retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.9935.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9950
Support level: 0.9935, 0.9790
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from its previous high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of 51.50.
Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10
Support level: 51.50, 50.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended gains following prior rebound from its mid-level of sideways channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1297.00.
Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00
Support level: 1287.20, 1284.35