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17 Mei 2017                        Daily Analysis


Euro at sky high, dollar embattled with scandals.

US dollar extended its losses on Wednesday following an aftermath of chaotic US political situation which weighs on the expectation for economic policies favouring tax cuts and higher fiscal spending. Investor’s prospect was jeopardized following yesterday’s report of US President Donald Trump sharing sensitive information with Russia’s diplomat. Such report came after FBI Director James Comey was abruptly dismissed by Trump, which has underlined more doubts over his ability to successfully push through economic stimulus program. In addition, overnight’s lackluster housing market data has further weigh on the dollar, fueling concerns regarding the timing of the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve. As such, the dollar index was down 0.72% and last quoted at 98.10. In the European region, the single common currency rose 0.86% to $1.1068 earlier today. The demand for Euro surged after investor’s shift their attention back to European Central Bank and their outlook for monetary policy as EU economic conditions began to recover.


Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price took a sharp turn, tumbling 1.03% to $48.15 after industry estimates showed a surprise build in US crude inventories. According to American Petroleum Institute, US inventory level rose 882,000 barrels, missing expectation for a decline of 2.3 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price extended its rally for the fourth day, up 0.52% to $1,241.40 as investors adopt risk aversion following jittery US politics.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event



Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event



Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
06:45 NZD – PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) 1.0% 0.8%
09:30 AUD – Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.5% 1.9%
16:30 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) 2.3% 2.4%
16:30 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Apr) 25.5K 7.5K
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.9% 1.9%
20:30 CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.2% 0.4%
22:30 Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories -5.247M -2.360M



GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing near the upper level of the triangle. A retracement from this level would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in the short-term. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.


Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.2955, 1.2985

Support level: 1.2910, 1.2890




EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum, it is expected to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1.1145.


Resistance level: 1.1145, 1.1250

Support level: 1.0975, 1.0850




USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior closure below the Fibonacci level of 23.6 at 112.90. As MACD histogram portrays downward signal while both MA lines continue to narrow downwards, USD/JPY is expected to extend its downward momentum towards the target of support level at 112.00


Resistance level: 112.90, 114.35

Support level: 112.00, 111.25




CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior closure below the 20-moving average line (red). MACD histogram which begins to show downward signal suggests crude oil price to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 47.55.


Resistance level: 48.75, 49.90

Support level: 47.55, 46.10




GOLD_, H4: Gold price has extended its gains after breaking the strong resistance level of 1233.30. MACD histogram indicator which shows upward signal while both MA lines has formed a golden cross suggests gold price to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level of 1245.15.


Resistance level: 1245.15, 1254.75

Support level: 1233.30, 1214.15