17 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
The reality of rate cut.
US dollar was traded mixed last Friday due to mixed signals delivered by its economic data. According to US Census Bureau, Core Retail Sales for the month of May came in as expected with 0.5%, portraying a solid consumer spending although inflationary pressure eases slightly. However, University of Michigan published a separate report with regards to Consumer Sentiment shows continuous depreciation from its prior high levels. For the month of Jun, Consumer Sentiment depreciates from 100.0 to 97.9, signaling deteriorating expectation towards US future economic growth which may dampen consumer spending. Such signal has further cemented the course for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve throughout the year of 2019. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon Fed monetary policy conclusion which will be delivered this coming Thursday. On the other hand, Australian dollar continues to hover near six-months low as ongoing trade dispute in between US and China deteriorates trader’s confidence towards its economy. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.07% to 96.96 while AUD/USD appreciates slightly by 0.05% to 0.6875.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.29% to $52.62 per barrel. Oil prices received some support after US Baker Hughes shows depreciation in rig counts from 789 to 788 that may reduce oil supply for short-term. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,341.92 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:00 (18th) EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) | 17.80 | 12.10 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 97.05. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.35, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2515, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1150, 1.1110
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior closure above 108.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.50, 108.20
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending channel formation. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6850.
Resistance level: 0.7020, 0.7210
Support level: 0.6850, 0.6700
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6485. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 1.3420. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3375, 1.3340
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9975, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 53.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up after closing above 53.00.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1355.00
Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00