17 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar endures while awaits FOMC minutes.
Greenback was lifted off its session low on yesterday while investors ponder upon the release of FOMC meeting minutes due early tomorrow morning. Overnight, US dollar received some bullish buyback after US Labor Department reported that its latest JOLTs Job Openings showed higher than expected reading with 7.136 million, exceeding expectation for a reading of 6.945 million. The rising number of job openings came as unemployment rate depreciates to its lowest level in 49 years, reaffirming investor’s sentiment that the US labor market would continue its resilience. However, gains on the greenback were limited as pound sterling extended its rally on yesterday due to upbeat jobs data in relation to wage growth. For the month of August, Average Earnings Index with inclusion of bonus rose 2.7%, exceeding economist forecast of 2.6%. A persistent rise in wage may contribute to higher inflationary pressure and warrant for yet another rate hike from the Bank of England in the long-run. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.03% to 94.73 while pairing of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.3187.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.04% to $72.18 per barrel. Oil prices edged up cautiously on yesterday over the backdrop of imminent US sanctions upon Iran may lead to shortage of supply in the future. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.02% to $1,225.32 a troy ounce following a recovery of market sentiment and US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Chung Yeung Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Economic Forecasts
02:00 (18th） USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.7% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.1% | 2.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Sep) | 1.249M | 1.278M | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.9% | -0.6% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.987M | 2.167M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a descending wedge while currently testing at the top level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the index to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level of the wedge.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.35
GPBUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which shows the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3130
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1630
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1550
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal and momentum suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the target at 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate imminent formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 0.7150, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7130, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the support level at 0.6540. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6615, 0.6660
Support level: 0.6575, 0.6540
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.9905 and downward trendline. Although MACD illustrate persistent upward signal, a break above 0.9905 is required in order to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 72.00.
Resistance level: 73.70, 75.00
Support level: 72.00, 70.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60