17 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback retrace while focus shift to Fed.
US dollar was traded lower on Monday while market participants anticipates the US Federal Reserve to raise their interest rates during its two-day policy meeting scheduled this Wednesday. The dollar index was down 0.02%, last seen around 96.83 as of writing. Last Friday, the greenback extended its gains against other major peers following the release of upbeat economic data from the region. According to US Census Bureau, Retail Sales for the month of November came in higher than expected with 0.2% versus economists’ forecast of only 0.1%. The optimistic data signaled a strong footing in holiday-shopping season while other factors include rising wages and elevated consumer confidence which help to cushion stronger spending from consumers. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD tumbled 0.05% to 1.2582 during early Asian trading session. Pound sterling received some setbacks after UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s team rejected reports that they are warming up to a second referendum on Brexit in the UK. The report has dialed down optimism towards Britain whereby a second referendum is deemed to be the next plausible step after May was largely anticipated to lose during UK Parliament voting upon Brexit draft agreement.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.27% to $51.31 per barrel after market opens this morning. The commodity received some bullish support after US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count was down by 4 to a reading of 873 oil rigs, lower than prior reading of 877. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,237.31 troy ounce as US dollar retraces this morning.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Dec) | 10 | 6 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) | 23.30 | 20.10 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term towards 96.80.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.15
Support level: 96.80, 96.60
GPBUSD, H4: GPBUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.2500.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2380
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.1310. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.1310, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1265, 1.1220
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 113.70, 113.85
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6840. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3430, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3380, 1.3315
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended its gains following prior breakout from the resistance level near 0.9955. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the next target near 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9930
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate a rebound signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction at 52.00.
Resistance level: 52.00, 52.90
Support level: 50.25, 49.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its previous high. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10
Support level: 1228.00, 1220.00