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18 January 2023                Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen beaten down by BoJ dovish policy decision.

The USD/JPY, which traded widely by global investors surged immediately on Wednesday after Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its monetary policy decision. According to the BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ decide to maintain its ultra-low interest rate in current basis. Besides, the Japan central bank would also keep purchasing its Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit. With that, it would likely to increase the currency circulation in the Japan, which dragged down the value of Japanese Yen. On the interest rate front, the interest rate that still remaining at negative level had also stoked a shift in sentiment toward other currencies such as US Dollar, as the profits in Japan market was limited. Prior to that, market participants were anticipating that BoJ might turn its stance by exiting loosening monetary policy. Obviously, BoJ has disappointed investors again. On the economic data front, the upbeat economic data has pushed Pound Sterling to its recent high on yesterday. The UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus and UK Claimant Count Change has given a better-than-expected reading in both. As of writing, the USDJPY rallied by 2.31% to 131.11, while the GBPUSD dropped by 0.17% to 1.2268.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price rose by 0.75% to $81.05 per barrel as of writing over the rising market optimism upon relaxation of China covid-19 curbs. On the other hand, the gold price eased by 0.42% to $1899.46 per troy ounce as of writing following the strengthening of US Dollar.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00                     USD                                        Beige Book

(19th)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 10.7% 10.6%
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 9.2% 9.2%
21:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.2% -0.4%
21:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% -0.1%
21:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -0.6% -0.8%

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from support level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.00.

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2300. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2445

Support level: 1.2145, 1.1930

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while break below the previous support level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses below the support level at 1.0635.

 

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0470

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher after it break above the previous resistance level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 132.30.

 

Resistance level: 132.30, 134.55

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following a rebound from the support level at 0.6950. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.7040.

 

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7120

Support level: 0.6950, 0.6870

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6400. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6495.

 

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6325, 0.6195

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following a prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3515

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3250

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9240. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9240, 0.9315

Support level: 0.9195, 0.9140

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 81.60. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 81.60.

 

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.10, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1898.65.

 

Resistance level: 1898.65, 1953.40

Support level: 1845.80, 1796.00