18 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebounded. How far can it sustain?
Dollar index was traded higher against its major peers by 0.20% to 89.21 as of writing following the release of optimistic construction data in the region and hawkish statement by San Francisco Fed president John Williams. Overnight, Greenback managed to pare its losses after the Commerce Department revealed an increase of U.S. homebuilding in March by 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.319 million units which is much better than the expected reading for an increase to 1.270 million. In addition, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams released a hawkish statement on yesterday by urging the U.S. central bank to increase interest rates gradually as inflation creep towards Fed’s target of 2%. On the contrary, EUR/USD pared its gains by 0.26% to $1.2368 following a disappointing ZEW Economic Sentiment data that missed its forecast reading of 7.3, last stood at only 1.9, pointing to decreased market optimism towards economic outlook for the Euro zone.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.50% to $66.78 per barrel following American Petroleum Institute (API) report that shown a fall in U.S. crude inventories by 1 million barrels to 428 million barrels. Also, risk of global supply disruptions over increasing conflicts in Syria, renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran and falling output following political and economic crisis in Venezuela provide additional support to the rise of the commodity price. Otherwise, gold price fell 0.21% to $1344.43 a troy ounce following recent gains of the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
03:15 (Thu) USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
04:15 (Thu) USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – Trade Balance (Mar) | 3B | 498B | 797B |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 2.7% | 2.7% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.306M | -0.189M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 0.458M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1.4370 and the pair is currently testing the support level at 1.4290. MACD that displays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.4370, 1.4560
Support level: 1.4290, 1.4230
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.2350. However, MACD that portrays decreasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance at 200-MA line. MACD that portrays a positive divergence would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 107.50.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 66.60. MACD that portrays decreasing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains if candlestick successfully gains support above the 50.0 Fibonacci level.
Resistance level: 67.40, 69.50
Support level: 66.60, 66.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1348.35. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the safe-haven asset price.
Resistance level: 1348.35, 1354.75
Support level: 1340.85, 1333.15