18 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Resilient job market jolts AUD.
Aussie dollar spikes up during Asian trading session following the release of regional employment data which shows a large surge in full-time job positions. As of writing, the pair of AUD/USD rose 0.14% to 0.7188. According to Australia’s Bureau of Statistics, the economy has 25,700 jobs for the month of March, seemingly higher than forecast for up to 12,000. Despite the large job gains, Australia’s unemployment rate ticked higher as expected from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, the notable optimism in the market lies on their full-time jobs data as it surges by 48,300 for the month of March after slumping 7,300 for the month prior. These data point towards a sustainable and resilient labor market which may lend some support towards their economy in the mid to long-term. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.1297. Euro remains on its bearish momentum since yesterday following the release of disappointing economic data from the region. Although CPI for the month of March came in as expected with 1.4%, its core CPI missed forecast with only 1.0% versus 1.3%. The data has further fueled market expectation that EU zone economy momentum started to diminish, in tandem with European Central Bank dovish projection.
As for commodities, crude oil price slumped 0.03% to $63.70 per barrel. Oil prices remained under pressure due to recent reports that Russia may abandon OPEC’s production cut after June in order to regain their market share from the United States. Similarly, gold price droops 0.12% to $1,272.45 a troy ounce after Venezuela sells $400 million of gold amid US sanctions.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 44.1 | 45.0 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Apr) | 51.6 | 51.8 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | -0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.4% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.2% | 0.9% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) | 13.7 | 10.4 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 196K | 205K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Markit Composite PMI | 54.6 | – | – |
| 01:00 (19th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 833 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of sideway channel. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 96.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3030. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to be extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3105
Support level: 1.3030, 1.3005
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1320. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1255
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 112.00. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.40.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35
Support level: 111.40, 110.85
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7175. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7195.
Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7175, 0.7145
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6705. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6740.
Resistance level: 0.6740, 0.6780
Support level: 0.6705, 0.6675
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3345. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3390.
Resistance level: 1.3390, 1.3440
Support level: 1.3345, 1.3290
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0090.
Resistance level: 1.0120, 1.0160
Support level: 1.0090, 1.0065
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 50 moving average line.
Resistance level: 64.50, 65.95
Support level: 63.45, 62.85
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1275.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest gold to extend losses toward the support level at 1253.10.
Resistance level: 1275.10, 1302.30
Support level: 1253.10, 1231.15