18 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback flat over lack of sentiment, Loonie falls.
Dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currency pairs edged higher by 0.02% to 96.62 during early Asian trading session after traded flat on Wednesday. With most of the major markets getting ready for their Good Friday holiday, the lack of momentum in the market caused investors to be cautious while awaiting further catalyst to gauge the market. According to recent trade war developments, both US and Chinese officials are currently scheduling more face-to-face trade talks in hope to reach a deal by May. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to travel to Beijing during the week of April 29 while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to travel to Washington the week after for further negotiations and hopefully to reach a deal by then. In other news, pair of USD/CAD was up by 0.09% to 1.3350 following yesterday’s release of poor Core CPI data. The inflation data fell to 0.3% from previous reading of 0.7% which spiraled fears that Canada’s Central Bank (BoC) might suggest for a rate cut in their policy meeting due next week. Besides that, pressure in the oil market further weakened the asset-backed currency.
As for commodities, crude oil price fell by 0.06% to $63.68 per barrel despite an unexpected fall in the crude’s inventory level. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories fell to 1.396M which was surprisingly lower than its forecasted value of just 1.200M. However, recent reports from Russia regarding their possible abandonment of OPEC’s production cut plan after June which would highly affect oil prices had since pressured oil bulls. Likewise, gold prices fell by 0.03% to $1273.35 per troy ounce amid increasing risk appetite in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 44.1 | 45.0 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Apr) | 51.6 | 51.8 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | -0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.4% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.2% | 0.9% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) | 13.7 | 10.4 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 196K | 205K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Markit Composite PMI | 54.6 | – | – |
| 01:00 (19th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 833 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a downward symmetrical triangle following recent rebound from the support level 96.45. Due to lack of momentum and signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout above the top of the triangle of support level to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.40, 96.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3020. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.3115.
Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1325. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its downward momentum towards the support level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 112.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 111.80.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70
Support level: 111.80, 111.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7165. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7165, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 0.6720. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6680
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 1.3295. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3380.
Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.0080. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction towards back the support level 1.0080.
Resistance level: 1.0115, 1.0170
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0035
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 64.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 63.15.
Resistance level: 64.55, 65.85
Support level: 63.15, 61.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1272.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1280.85.
Resistance level: 1280.85, 1287.00
Support level: 1272.05, 1264.60