18 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback stabilized despite dismal data.
US dollar seesawed against other major currencies on Monday after manufacturing activity in the New York region fell to a new low in the month of June. According to New York Federal Reserve, its manufacturing index fell to -8.6, its lowest level in two-and-a-half years. Such reading while coupled with weak inflation and rising sluggishness within the labor market has cemented the case for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this year. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability for a rate cut during July’s meeting has risen up to 84.5%. However, as investor’s has currently priced in the rate hike factor into greenback, losses on the currency remains limited. Elsewhere, pound sterling slumped to six months low against the US dollar on yesterday following market risk aversion from the UK market. Recent reports show that Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson remains as the leading candidate to become Britain’s next Prime Minister, heightening possibility of a no-deal Brexit ahead. As of writing, dollar index ticked down 0.03% to 97.00 while pair of GBP/USD rebounds by 0.06% to 1.2540.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.08% to $51.95 per barrel. On yesterday, oil price received some bearish pressure after OPEC members failed to reach consensus on their next meeting date which may bring more uncertainty upon the fate of production cut agreement. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat around $1,339.67 a troy ounce as traders wait for further market signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
22:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
22:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (May) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun) | 8.2 | 6.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (May) | 1.290M | 1.296M | – |
| 04:30
(18th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 4.850M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 97.05. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.80, 96.35
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2630. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.2515.
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2515, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1335
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1150
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from 108.70. MACD which illustrate bearish signals suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below the support of 108.50.
Resistance level: 108.75, 109.15
Support level: 108.50, 108.20
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.6850. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6850.
Resistance level: 0.7020, 0.7210
Support level: 0.6850, 0.6700
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 0.6485. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction
Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 1.3420. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3375, 1.3340
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9975, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance near 53.00. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term, towards 51.60.
Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45
Support level: 51.60, 50.55
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. Although MACD has formed a bullish signal, a break above the resistance of 1340.00 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1345.00
Support level: 1332.00, 1321.00