18 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD in bid as rate cut fear diminishes.
Australian dollar extended gains during Asian trading session although recent data showed mixed signals in its employment market. For the month of June, Australia’s economy generated 21.1K fulltime jobs, significantly higher than previous month’s reading of only 2.4K. However, part-time jobs in June fell by 20.6K after rising up to 39.8K for the previous month. Nevertheless, unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%. Overall, investors continue to pour into the Australian market following broad weakness experienced by the US dollar due to poor housing data. In addition, a rise in Australia’s full-time job has eased market expectation towards Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates immediately in August. Prior, the central bank had cut its rates in May and June while they are widely expected to deliver another rate cut by the final quarter of the year 2019. On the other hand, Japanese yen remains well in bid following the release of optimistic trade data this morning. For the month of June, Japan’s trade balance came in at a higher surplus of 589.5 billion, significantly higher than forecast of 420.0 billion. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.31% to 0.7030 while USD/JPY fell 0.19% to 107.73.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.41% to $56.79 per barrel. Oil prices plunged sharply on yesterday after recent reports from Energy Information Administration shows a high accumulation in US crude oil stocks. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.26% to $1,422.57 a troy ounce while traders wait for more signals from the US market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.5% | -0.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 0.3 | 5.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 50 moving average line (Blue).
Resistance level: 97.10, 97.50
Support level: 96.50, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2435. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.2435.
Resistance level: 1.2435, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2370, 1.2300
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1210, 1.1170
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 107.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 107.40.
Resistance level: 107.75, 108.20
Support level: 107.40, 106.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher currently still testing the resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.7030.
Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7055
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6725. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6660
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3050. However, MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 1.3095.
Resistance level: 1.3095, 1.3135
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2990
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 0.9880. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9840.
Resistance level: 0.9880, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 56.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 56.85.
Resistance level: 56.85, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1424.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1403.00.
Resistance level: 1424.05, 1436.35
Support level: 1403.00, 1383.60