18 July 2023 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback struggled amid growing bets of less hawkish Fed.
The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, managed to stop the bleeding from its wound in the yesterday trading session as there were no major factors influencing market direction. During this week, it is anticipated that the dollar will stabilize as investors await the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25 basis point rate hike is expected. The substantial decrease in the dollar’s value last week was deemed somewhat unusual, and it is expected that the market will stabilize this week, potentially leading to a stronger dollar. The retail sales report for June, which has scheduled for release on Tuesday, will be the primary focus of the US economic landscape this week. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that this data will significantly impact monetary policy decisions. According to CME Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of a rate hike in July is fully priced in by the market. Recent data indicating better-than-expected economic growth and a slower-than-anticipated increase in inflation have reduced the likelihood of a recession or a sharp economic slowdown. This has further fueled expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve. As of writing, the dollar index dropped -0.03% to 99.88.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices depreciated by -1.22% to $74.00 per barrel as the weak Chinese data increased the market fears over the prospect of oil demand. Besides, gold prices ticked up 0.01% to $1955.15 per troy ounce as the US dollar rebounded slightly following a rejection near the recent low level.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 USD Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 99.40. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 99.40.
Resistance level: 100.65, 103.00
Support level: 99.40, 97.75
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently retesting the support level at 1.3090. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3090, 1.2970
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1240. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1365
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1065
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 139.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 139.00, 141.60
Support level: 136.35, 133.10
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6925, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6785, 0.6675
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6290.
Resistance level: 0.6455, 0.6515
Support level: 0.6290, 0.6150
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3175. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3245.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3065
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.8670. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.8535.
Resistance level: 0.8670, 0.8775
Support level: 0.8535, 0.8355
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 77.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 73.90.
Resistance level: 77.15, 80.75
Support level: 73.90, 70.15
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70
Support level: 1951.60, 1939.75