18 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Fed Chair to-be more hawkish, Greenback on its support.
Dollar index was traded higher against a basket of major currencies, last quoted up 0.124% to 93.36. The gains in the Greenback are buoyed by economic data that topped expectations indicating the underlying strength in the U.S. economy. According to statement by Labor Department, U.S. import prices recorded the largest gain with a 0.7% increase for the month of September versus the expected 0.5% increase. In addition, recovery of construction and utilities production after the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma last month boasted the U.S. industrial output and manufacturing production to rise 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. The increase in Greenback was further catalyzed following a report that President Donald Trump favored John Taylor, one of the more hawkish candidates as the next Fed chair. Release of the news has further spiked up investors’ expectation toward Fed to take more aggressive stance on monetary policy. On the other hand, EUR/USD decreased by 0.32% following failure of German ZEW index showing an increase to 17.6 but missed the expected 20.0.
In the commodity market, crude oil price extend its gains by 0.40% to $52.09 per barrel after American Petroleum Institute (API) stated that crude oil inventories reduced by 7.130 million barrels versus the expected decrease by 3.097 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price fell by 1.18% to $1286.72 a troy ounce overnight following a sharp rise in the Greenback on better-than-expected economic data and growing speculation of investors toward the next head of the Federal Reserve to be more hawkish on monetary policy.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:10 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
20:00 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
20:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – NAB Quarterly Business Confidence | 7 | – | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Aug) | 2.1% | 2.1% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Sep) | -2.8K | 1.0K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Sep) | 1.300M | 1.245M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep) | -0.8% | -0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -2.6% | -0.3% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.747M | -1.991M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.3150. Formation of pin bar and golden-cross by MACD signal line suggest the pair to trade higher. However, a break above resistance by 200-MA line is required for the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3300
Support level: 1.3150, 1.3020
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.1735. Formation of pin bar and positive divergence as shown by MACD signal line suggest the pair to continue its momentum to trade higher toward resistance by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 1.1815, 1.1870
Support level: 1.1735, 1.1680
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior its failure to break above resistance level at 112.35 and resistance by 200-MA line. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and formation of negative divergence as shown by MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 112.00.
Resistance level: 112.35, 112.70
Support level: 112.00, 111.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 51.65. A breakout above resistance level at 52.40 is required for crude oil price to continue its momentum to trade higher toward the next resistance level at 53.00.
Resistance level: 52.40, 53.00
Support level: 51.65, 51.35
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1283.40. Formation of pin bar and golden-cross by MACD signal line suggest gold price to trade higher, testing the resistance by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 1290.20, 1297.60
Support level: 1283.40, 1278.35