18 December 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar flat ahead of Fed rate hike expectations.
Greenback was traded flat against a basket of six major currency pairs after being pressured earlier today due to large equity sell-off and poor US data while investors currently waits for US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and statement later this week. Although poorer data would affect Fed’s decision to continue rate hike next year, it isn’t sufficient to restrain Fed from raising interest rate for the last time this year. While global economy currently slowing down, Fed’s interest rate statement is widely expected to include a dovish note regarding future US economy growth. Dollar index inched higher by 0.02% to 96.50 as of writing. In other news, pair of NZD/USD surged 0.66% to 0.6850 amid higher than expected data this morning. According to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), New Zealand’s Business Confidence came in at -24.1, higher compared to economists’ expectations of -37.1. The data indicates higher business investment activities as well as improving levels of output.
In the commodities market, crude oil price continued its bearish momentum, falling by 0.02% to $49.45 per barrel before early European trading session. Sentiment in the crude market remains cloudy as investors fear that OPEC’s plan to cut supply by 1.2M bpd might be insufficient to rebalance the increasing US crude inventories. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.14% to $1,247.50 a troy ounce as market uncertainties pressured investors to hold safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 102.0 | 101.8 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Nov) | 1.265M | 1.259M | – |
| 05:30
(19th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -10.180M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level at 96.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest dollar to undergo technical correction and rebound from its lower level.
Resistance level: 96.60, 96.80
Support level: 96.30, 96.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2605. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards its resistance level 1.2660.
Resistance level: 1.2660, 1.2700
Support level: 1.2605, 1.2535
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1360. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1325.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1325, 1.1300
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of the symmetrical triangle. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.30, 112.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.7185. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7220.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6835. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6895.
Resistance level: 0.6895, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6835, 0.6800
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 1.3400. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3355.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3450
Support level: 1.3355, 1.3315
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9925. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9880
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level 49.55. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 48.05.
Resistance level: 49.55, 50.50
Support level: 48.05, 47.00
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level while currently testing near the support level 1246.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1250.00, 1254.30
Support level: 1246.45, 1241.60