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19 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

 

US Treasury hits 2 years high.

US dollar may be in run for its best week yet in 2022 as investors gears up for upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting due next week. Over the recent weeks, several Fed officials such as John Williams dan Mary Daly grumbles over high inflationary pressure and calls for more action to be done in order to curb its appreciation. Recent rise in Omicron has continued to place pressure upon global supply chain and Fed officials expects inflation to rise further due to scarcity of certain materials or goods. They also commented that current monetary policy approach is inadequate and urged for a change in order to control price of goods. Hawkish comments provided by several Fed members has sparked speculation that Fed may take into account of adopting a different strategy during its upcoming policy meeting. Thus, the speculation has led to a rise in US Treasury yield, peaking at 2 years high around 1.884%. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.03% to 95.65.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 1.08% to $86.20 per barrel following geopolitical tension in the Middle East. According to Reuters, Houthi group has launched an attack on UAE’s oil truck, causing 3 casualties. They also warned to launch more attacks on UAE’s oil facilities in the future which may jeopardize the country’s oil supply in the near-term. On the other hand, gold price notched down 0.01% to $1,814.12 a troy ounce due to rising US Treasury yield and US dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

22:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 5.10% 5.20%
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.717M 1.701M
21:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.60%

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.95, 96.30

Support level: 95.45, 95.00

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3630, 1.3690

Support level: 1.3570, 1.3510

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1440

Support level: 1.1310, 1.1260

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following rebound from 113.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in mid-term.

 

Resistance level: 115.40, 116.25

Support level: 114.55, 113.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7140

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6740, 0.6700

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2485.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout at 0.9165. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9190, 0.9200

Support level: 0.9165, 0.9130

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above 84.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 87.40, 89.50

Support level: 84.60, 82.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below 1812.80.

 

Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00

Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60