19 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback pinned down by dovish bets.
Greenback remains under pressure during mid-Asian trading following higher expectation towards US Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish outlook over-the-backdrop of recessive economic data from the region. The dollar index slumped 0.10% to 95.83 as of writing. In general, most investors expect the Fed to held off from raising interest rates further while pledging a “wait-and-see” approach with regards to monetary policy. Prior, US inflationary pressure seems to lose some traction while activities in several key sectors from the region have seen some easing. Such progression would force the Fed to reassess their policy forward guidance, particularly with regards to dot-plot (Fed’s interest rate outlook). Moving forward, market participants will place their focus upon this week’s Fed policy meeting where some speculates the central bank to reveal their plan to end balance sheet tapering and make adjustment on prior dot-plot projection. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.06% to 0.7107, unfazed by dovish meeting minutes from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to the meeting minutes, RBA took note of “significant uncertainties” in the market, especially with respect to domestic demand. However, the central bank reiterated that the case for near-term policy adjustment is still low at this point of time.
As for commodities market, crude oil price extended its gains by 0.15% to $59.34 per barrel. Oil futures remains well in bid after Kazakhstan announced to shut production at its giant Kashagan oil field next month in compliance with OPEC-led supply cut. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.39% to $1,307.43 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) | 3.4% | 3.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | 14.2K | 13.1K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | -13.4 | -11.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 04:30 (20th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.580M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 95.80.
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.40
Support level: 95.80, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3220. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3295.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3145
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher folliwing prior rebound from the support level at 1.1335. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1335, 1.1315
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the upward channel bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.40, 112.00
Support level: 111.10, 110.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6840. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6900
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6805
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3320.
Resistance level: 1.3355, 1.3410
Support level: 1.3320, 1.3290
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0025. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 0.9990.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 59.45. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 59.45, 61.25
Support level: 57.65, 55.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the downward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1310.35.
Resistance level: 1310.35, 1321.10
Support level: 1298.90, 1292.05