19 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar flat ahead of FOMC meeting minutes, pound under pressure.
Greenback measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded flat after opening Monday’s market with a large gap down. Recent downbeat economic data in the US in terms of inflationary level and manufacturing worsen the sentiment for dollar market as investors worry this week’s meeting minutes might carry a dovish note. Besides that, recent statement from the Fed on future rate cuts are highly possible with recent data supporting their concerns on weakening economy. However, dollar was able to hold its ground following Brexit headlines as UK Speaker John Berkow ruled against Prime Minister Theresa May’s motion on a third vote towards her Brexit deal. Berkow stated that another vote can only made possible if there’s changes made towards the original deal, adding pressure onto May as she seeks approval from EU lawmakers for the extension of Brexit beyond 29th March. The pound market went under pressure as investors worry that a rejection from EU might lead to hard-Brexit which would send UK into a sharp recession. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.03% to 95.90 while pair of GBP/USD increased by 0.10% to 1.3265.
For the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.10% to $59.30 per barrel after hitting a new high in 4-months following recent upbeat inventory data and OPEC’s effort in its glut cut which had since brought significant impact onto its prices. Oil prices are expected to inch higher in the future as global supply decreases amid sanctions on Venezuela and Iran oil. Likewise, gold price extended increases by 0.10% to $1304.85 per troy ounce following dollar fall.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) | 3.4% | 3.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | 14.2K | 13.1K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | -13.4 | -11.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 04:30 (20th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.580M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat following recent breakout below the previous support level 96.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards back the previous level 96.05.
Resistance level: 96.05, 96.40
Support level: 95.60, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3250. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3180
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.75.MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.10, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7090 in short term.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6815. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6875.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6815, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3315. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3375.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3440
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3260
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat following recent rebound from the support level 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower following its trend towards the support level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 59.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 59.35, 61.25
Support level: 57.50, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1305.65. MACD which illustrating bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1305.65.
Resistance level: 1305.65, 1315.05
Support level: 1299.15, 1289.35