21 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Rate hike abandoned, recession incoming?
Greenback nursed its heavy losses during mid-Asian session after US Federal Reserve stunned the market by abandoning all plans to raise interest rates over the backdrop of increasing recessive risks. On yesterday, investors rushed to pull the bearish trigger upon greenback, pushing US Treasury yields to its lowest level since early 2018. As for now, the spread between yields of 2-years and 10-years Treasuries narrowed down to its lowest level in three months, renewing market concerns for a possible inversion of yield curve. A curve inversion may indicate imminent recession ahead as long-term yields inches closer to short-term yields. On the other hand, New Zealand dollar extended its gains following a large sell-off that occur on the greenback. Similarly, the currency received further support after GDP reading for Q4 came in within expectation at 0.6%, easing fears for an economic downturn in the region. As of writing, the dollar index mends its losses by 0.13% to 95.30 while pairing of NZD/USD advanced up by 0.54% to 0.6919.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.32% to $59.89 per barrel. Oil futures remained supported after US government data showed further tightening in domestic oil inventories. However, gains in the commodity price were limited after US President Donald Trump warned that tariffs on Chinese goods may stay for a “substantial amount of time” in order to ensure China complies with trade agreement. On the other hand, gold price tacks up 0.47% to $1,318.67 a troy ounce following lower expectation for a rate hike in the United States.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16.30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
16.30 CHF SNB Press Conference
17.00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 1.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 20.00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 226K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | -4.1 | 4.6 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 95.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 95.10.
Resistance level: 95.45, 96.70
Support level: 95.10, 94.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3220. However, MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term towards the resistance level at 1.3130.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1425. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term if it unsuccessfully breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1465, 1.1500
Support level: 1.1425, 1.1395
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 110.60. MACD which display bearish signals suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 110.25.
Resistance level: 110.25, 109.25
Support level: 110.60, 111.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7145. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7120, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 0.6935. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6875
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3290. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout at the support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3235
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9895. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9960
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.70. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.25.
Resistance level: 61.25, 63.10
Support level: 59.70, 57.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1310.35. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1322.20.
Resistance level: 1322.20, 1344.70
Support level: 1310.35, 1298.90