19 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Trade tensions further pressure FX market.
Last week, market cheered on positive developments in trade talks after US President Donald Trump delayed additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. After a phone call conducted between US and China’s trade representatives last week, President Trump decided to delay the tariff in hope to achieve a deal with China as soon as possible. However, recent statements from Trump twitter accused Huawei of being a national security threat and that the US may not be open to doing business with the tech company. Trump also stated that he is not ready to make a deal with China which turned the tables for a possible trade deal anytime soon. With mixed signals lingering the trade war in the market, investors are waiting for further top-level negotiations next month to further gauge trade developments. Since the commencement of trade war, dollar and other safe-haven assets such as gold and Japanese yen had received higher demand with US favoring from the tariff imposed foreign goods. On the other hand, foreign countries’ economy which are suffering from tariff imposed by the US such as China and their major trading partners Australia and New Zealand had caused investors to largely sell-off their currency as they wait for further improvement in sentiment before investing back into those countries. As of writing, dollar index ticked higher by 0.06% to 98.01 while pair of USD/JPY and AUD/USD was down by 0.02% to 106.32 and 0.04% to 0.6775 respectively.
In the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.47% to $55.32 per barrel following escalating Middle East tensions. According to Reuters, Yemen’s Houthi group attacked a Saudi drone across an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia which caused a fire at a gas plant. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.28% to $1,509.10 a troy ounce due stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 1.1% | 1.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2165. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 1.2085.
Resistance level: 1.2165, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2085, 1.1980
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1115. MACD which bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at106.00. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 106.00.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the downward channel’s top level. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further signal appeared such as breakout above or a retracement before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6465. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6395.
Resistance level: 0.6465, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6330
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3275. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3275.
Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3340
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be trade lower in short term toward the support level at 0.9780.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9780, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 54.65. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 54.65, 53.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1507.10. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1507.10.
Resistance level: 1525.90, 1548.05
Support level: 1507.10, 1490.00