19 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback loses its support, Fed’s Beige Book in focus.
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies at 93.14 as of writing after falling 0.05% amid weaker-than-expected housing data from overnight. According to data released by the Commerce Department, U.S. homebuilding fell 4.7% versus the expected 0.5% reduction to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.127 million units in September. In addition, building permits data shown a sharp 4.5% slump to a rate of 1.215 million units and it was below estimates of a fall to 1.245 million units. However, losses of the Greenback was limited as it was being capped by gains in U.S. treasury yields on speculation over the next Fed chair to adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy in the future. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting release of Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a report on economic and inflationary conditions across the twelve Federal Reserve districts. On the other hand, AUD/USD edged higher by 0.03% at 0.7848 ahead of China GDP data and other key economic data. In China, its GDP data is expected to show an increase of 1.7% quarterly and 6.8% yearly. Other data such as industrial production in September is expected to show a 6.2% gains and retail sales is expected to increase by 10.2%.
In the commodity market, crude oil price remained firm with gains of 0.13% at $52.11 per barrel, supported by ongoing supply restriction by OPEC, tensions in the Middle East and reduced production in the United States after incidence of hurricane-enforced closures. Likewise, gold prices remained flat at $1281.58 a troy ounce after a small increment of 0.13% while investors shifting their near-term focus toward Fed’s Beige Book which directly reflect the economic and inflationary conditions in U.S.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Employment Change (Sep) | 54.2K | 15.0K | 19.8K |
| 10:00 | CNY – GDP (YoY) (Q3) | 6.9% | 6.8% | – |
| 10:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) | 6.0% | 6.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 1.0% | -0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 243K | 240K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 23.8 | 22.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking above resistance level at 1.3190 and resistance by 200-MA line. Golden-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggest the pair to continue its momentum to trade higher toward the next resistance level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3150
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking above resistance by 200-MA line. Widening of MACD signal lines suggest increasing bullish momentum for the pair to trade higher toward the resistance level at 1.1815.
Resistance level: 1.1815, 1.1870
Support level: 1.1785, 1.1735
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior breaking below support level at 113.00. Death-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggest short-term technical correction for the pair to trade lower toward the next support level at 112.75.
Resistance level: 113.15, 113.00
Support level: 112.75, 112.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 52.50 and support level at 51.65. It is suggested to wait for breakout to occur for a clearer sign of trend.
Resistance level: 52.50, 53.70
Support level: 51.65, 51.25
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1278.35. Formation of pin bar and positive divergence by MACD signal line suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction toward the resistance level at 1283.40.
Resistance level: 1283.40, 1290.20
Support level: 1278.35, 1268.55