19 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Double optimism propels greenback.
Greenback climbs further against other major currencies on Thursday over the backdrop of optimistic US economic data which has reaffirmed investors expectation for gradual pace of interest rate hike from Federal Reserve. According to Philadelphia Fed, they reported that the manufacturing index for the region fell to a reading of 22.2 in the month of October, fared better-than-expected when compared to economist forecast for a slump of up till 19.7. At the same time, US Department of Labor found that the initial jobless claims for last week fell by 5,000 to a total of 210,000, beating economist forecast for a drop to 211,000. Both bullish reports have cemented overall sentiment towards further economic progression while reaffirming the hawkish call from Fed minutes to hike its interest rate gradually and well beyond neutral level in the long-run. On the other hand, safe-haven yen gained higher market demand following a sharp retreat on Wall Street which has prompted risk aversion in the market. Upon writing, dollar index notched up 0.43% to 95.67 while pairing of USD/JPY was down 0.02% to 112.16.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.25% to $68.84 per barrel. Recently, oil prices experience deep sell off following confusing signals from Saudi Arabia crisis over missing journalist while coupled with a large buildup of crude stocks from the United States for last week. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.02% to $1,226.06 a troy ounce amid higher risk aversion due to shares selloff.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.9% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Sep) | 5.34M | 5.30M | – |
| 01:00 (20th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 869 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded thinly while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3030. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3030, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2920
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was thinly traded and currently testing near the resistance level of 1.1460. MACD which begins to form golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target at 1.1460.
Resistance level: 1.1460, 1.1495
Support level: 1.1420, 1.1370
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.7090. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3175
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3010
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following prior closure above the resistance of 0.9945. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the resistance of 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0055
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 69.30, 70.65
Support level: 67.35, 66.10
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60